Under Pressure: Gas Regulation for a Time of Transition
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) │ May 2021 

RAP assesses existing regulatory processes for the gas utility industry through the lens of customers, utilities, and the climate policy goals of states. RAP provides recommendations to regulators and public utility commissions to avoid unneeded gas investment, provide customers alternatives, evaluate alternatives based on evidence, and protect gas customers in the short and long term.  

Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Residential Heating Technologies in the USA
UC Davis Western Cooling Efficiency Center (WCEC) │ September 2020 

Researchers at UC Davis WCEC simulated the CO2 impacts of replacing residential natural gas furnaces with electric and dual fuel heat pumps across the US under current grid conditions. The researchers found that CO2 emissions declined in states with “cleaner” existing grids, and increased in  states with “dirtier” grids.  

Click here for a recording that expands on this research (sponsored by NRDC): Greenhouse Gas Emission Forecasts for Electrification of Space Heating in Residential Homes – YouTube. 

Pathways For British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals
Guidehouse │ August 2020 

Guidehouse (Navigant) evaluated two pathways—one electrification-only, and the other diversified– for British Columbia (B.C.) to meet its 2050 decarbonization goals. Although the evaluation showed both pathways could meet the region’s goals, the diversified pathway was projected to save over $100 billion from a societal perspective compared to the electrification-only pathway, and the aggressive electrification strategy would result in a 68% increase in peak demand, requiring considerable infrastructure upgrades. 

Guidehouse also recently completed a decarbonization study for the European group Gas for Climate: Gas Decarbonisation Pathways 2020-2050.  

Thermally Driven Heat Pumps: The Fastest Possible Way to Decarbonize Our Building Heat Loads
Stone Mountain Technologies, Inc │ July 2019 

Stone Mountain Technologies (SMTI) evaluated the potential for five HVAC technologies–SMTI’s thermally driven heat pump (TDHP), standard and cold climate electric heat pumps, and traditional standard- and high-efficiency gas furnaces–to decarbonize the residential heating sector across a variety of US cities and climates. The study found that TDHPs had the lowest operating cost, produced the lowest level of NOx emissions, and produced the lowest net carbon footprint of the five technologies examined.   

U.S. National Electrification Assessment
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) │ April 2018 

EPRI modeled the impacts of four electrification scenarios, ranging from a conservative scenario with slow technology change to a transformative scenario with stringent carbon pricing, on electric and natural gas direct fuel usage over the next 30 years (2017-2050). The study found that natural gas demand would increase and emissions would decrease under all four scenarios.